COMPARE FIGHTERS

Aaron Lopez

Aaron Lopez

42-16-1

Welterweight

vs
Juan Carrillo

Juan Carrillo

15-1-0

Light Heavyweight

⚡ FIGHT PREDICTION
Moderate Confidence
PREDICTED WINNER
Juan Carrillo
PREDICTED METHOD
📋 Decision
Lopez Carrillo
43%
57%
📊 Analysis

Our model predicts Juan Carrillo to defeat Aaron Lopez with a 57% probability (moderate confidence). This fight is expected to go to the scorecards. Key advantages: win rate & record and p4p rating.

🔑 Key Factors
📊 Win Rate & Record Carrillo
Lopez (72%) vs Carrillo (94%)
🏆 P4P Rating Carrillo
Lopez Rank #1195 (0.423) vs Carrillo Rank #305 (0.659)
📅 Activity & Recency Lopez
Lopez (9 fights in 2 yrs) vs Carrillo (2 fights in 2 yrs)
🔗 Common Opponents Lopez
2 shared opponents — Lopez 2W vs Carrillo 2W
💥 KO Power Lopez
Lopez (33% KO rate) vs Carrillo (20% KO rate)
👑 Title Fight Pedigree Lopez
Lopez 0/1 title fights vs Carrillo 0/0 title fights
🥊 Experience & Durability Lopez
Lopez 59 fights vs Carrillo 16 fights; Win streaks: Lopez 0, Carrillo 6; Stoppage losses: Lopez 5, Carrillo 0
Prediction generated by a logistic regression model trained on 12,530+ historical fights. Boxing is unpredictable: any fighter can win on any given night.
⚠
For Entertainment Purposes Only

Our predictions are generated by a logistic regression model that learned which factors matter most from thousands of historical fight outcomes. Results in boxing are inherently unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.


Radar Comparison
P4P Component Scores
ComponentLopezCarrillo
Win/Loss 0.284 0.921
Opposition 0.575 0.562
Titles 0.020 0.000
Activity 0.960 0.760
Composite 0.423 0.659

Common Opponents

OpponentLopezCarrillo
Lenin Castillo Win TKO Win UD
Khainell Wheeler Win KO Win UD