COMPARE FIGHTERS
Fight Night
Saturday, December 5, 2026
· Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona
Fighter A
Keith Thurman
31-2-0
Super Welterweight
vs
Fighter B
V
Vergil Ortiz Jr.
24-0-0
Super Welterweight
FIGHT PREDICTION
Low Confidence
PREDICTED WINNER
Keith Thurman
PREDICTED METHOD
📋 Decision
Thurman
Ortiz Jr.
📊 Analysis
Our model predicts Keith Thurman to defeat Vergil Ortiz Jr. with a 51% probability (low confidence). This fight is expected to go to the scorecards. Key advantages: p4p rating, activity & recency, and experience & durability.
🔑 Key Factors
P4P Rating
Thurman
Thurman Rank #59 (0.778) vs Ortiz Jr. Unranked
Activity & Recency
Thurman
Thurman (4 fights in 2 yrs) vs Ortiz Jr. (1 fights in 2 yrs)
Title Fight Pedigree
Jr.
Thurman 1/2 title fights vs Ortiz Jr. 1/1 title fights
Physical Attributes
Jr.
Ortiz Jr. +7cm height, Ortiz Jr. +3cm reach, Ortiz Jr. age advantage (26)
KO Power
Jr.
Thurman (74% KO rate) vs Ortiz Jr. (88% KO rate)
Win Rate & Record
Jr.
Thurman (94%) vs Ortiz Jr. (100%)
Experience & Durability
Thurman
Thurman 33 fights vs Ortiz Jr. 24 fights; Win streaks: Thurman 0, Ortiz Jr. 1; Stoppage losses: Thurman 1, Ortiz Jr. 0
Prediction generated by a logistic regression model trained on 12,530+ historical fights. Boxing is unpredictable: any fighter can win on any given night.
Radar Comparison
Each axis runs from 0 at the centre to 100% at the rim. Hover a name to isolate a fighter, or a point for its value.