COMPARE FIGHTERS
Fight Night
Saturday, December 12, 2026
· Salle des Etoliles, Monte Carlo, Monaco
Fighter A
Josh Padley
19-1-0
Lightweight
vs
Fighter B
Moussa Gholam
26-1-0
Super Featherweight
FIGHT PREDICTION
Low Confidence
PREDICTED WINNER
Moussa Gholam
PREDICTED METHOD
💥 Stoppage (KO/TKO)
Padley
Gholam
📊 Analysis
Our model predicts Moussa Gholam to defeat Josh Padley with a 54% probability (low confidence). Given Gholam's 62% KO rate, this fight is likely to end inside the distance. Key advantages: ko power, win rate & record, and p4p rating.
🔑 Key Factors
KO Power
Gholam
Padley (32% KO rate) vs Gholam (62% KO rate)
Activity & Recency
Padley
Padley (5 fights in 2 yrs) vs Gholam (6 fights in 2 yrs)
Title Fight Pedigree
Padley
Padley 0/1 title fights vs Gholam 0/0 title fights
Win Rate & Record
Gholam
Padley (95%) vs Gholam (96%)
Experience & Durability
Padley
Padley 20 fights vs Gholam 27 fights; Win streaks: Padley 4, Gholam 0; Stoppage losses: Padley 1, Gholam 0
P4P Rating
Gholam
Padley Rank #144 (0.713) vs Gholam Rank #121 (0.724)
Prediction generated by a logistic regression model trained on 12,530+ historical fights. Boxing is unpredictable: any fighter can win on any given night.
Radar Comparison
Each axis runs from 0 at the centre to 100% at the rim. Hover a name to isolate a fighter, or a point for its value.
P4P Component Scores
| Component | Padley | Gholam |
|---|---|---|
| Win/Loss | 0.925 | 0.965 |
| Opposition | 0.624 | 0.649 |
| Titles | 0.120 | 0.000 |
| Activity | 1.000 | 0.910 |
| Composite | 0.713 | 0.724 |