COMPARE FIGHTERS
Fight Night
Friday, December 4, 2026
· Watsco Center, Miami, Florida
Fighter A
Danny Garcia
38-4-0
Bantamweight
vs
Fighter B
Ruslan Provodnikov
25-5-0
Super Lightweight
FIGHT PREDICTION
High Confidence
PREDICTED WINNER
Danny Garcia
PREDICTED METHOD
📋 Decision
Garcia
Provodnikov
📊 Analysis
Our model predicts Danny Garcia to defeat Ruslan Provodnikov with a 68% probability (high confidence). This fight is expected to go to the scorecards. Key advantages: common opponents, ko power, and activity & recency. Garcia holds a 6cm reach advantage which could be a factor at range. However, at 37 years old, age could be a concern for Garcia.
🔑 Key Factors
Common Opponents
Garcia
1 shared opponents — Garcia 1W vs Provodnikov 0W
KO Power
Garcia
Garcia (58% KO rate) vs Provodnikov (4% KO rate)
Activity & Recency
Garcia
Garcia (2 fights in 2 yrs) vs Provodnikov (0 fights in 2 yrs)
Title Fight Pedigree
Garcia
Garcia 4/7 title fights vs Provodnikov 0/2 title fights
P4P Rating
Garcia
Garcia Rank #151 (0.708) vs Provodnikov Rank #960 (0.507)
Physical Attributes
Garcia
Garcia +6cm height, Garcia +6cm reach, Garcia age advantage (37)
Experience & Durability
Garcia
Garcia 42 fights vs Provodnikov 30 fights; Win streaks: Garcia 2, Provodnikov 0; Stoppage losses: Garcia 1, Provodnikov 0
Win Rate & Record
Garcia
Garcia (90%) vs Provodnikov (83%)
Prediction generated by a logistic regression model trained on 12,530+ historical fights. Boxing is unpredictable: any fighter can win on any given night.
Radar Comparison
Each axis runs from 0 at the centre to 100% at the rim. Hover a name to isolate a fighter, or a point for its value.
P4P Component Scores
| Component | Garcia | Provodnikov |
|---|---|---|
| Win/Loss | 0.836 | 0.667 |
| Opposition | 0.648 | 0.508 |
| Titles | 0.490 | 0.040 |
| Activity | 0.650 | 0.140 |
| Composite | 0.708 | 0.507 |
Common Opponents
| Opponent | Garcia | Provodnikov |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Martin Matthysse | Win UD | Loss MD |