COMPARE FIGHTERS
Fight Night
Saturday, December 12, 2026
· UMMC Arena, Ekaterinburg, Russia
Title Fight
Fighter A
Dmitry Bivol
25-1-0
Light Heavyweight
vs
Fighter B
Callum Smith
31-2-0
Light Heavyweight
FIGHT PREDICTION
Low Confidence
PREDICTED WINNER
Dmitry Bivol
PREDICTED METHOD
💥 Stoppage (KO/TKO)
Bivol
Smith
📊 Analysis
Our model predicts Dmitry Bivol to defeat Callum Smith with a 53% probability (low confidence). Given Bivol's 48% KO rate, this fight is likely to end inside the distance. Key advantages: common opponents, p4p rating, and activity & recency.
🔑 Key Factors
Common Opponents
Bivol
3 shared opponents — Bivol 3W vs Smith 1W
Physical Attributes
Smith
Smith +8cm height, Smith +15cm reach
P4P Rating
Bivol
Bivol Rank #3 (0.953) vs Smith Rank #25 (0.825)
Activity & Recency
Bivol
Bivol (2 fights in 2 yrs) vs Smith (3 fights in 2 yrs)
Title Fight Pedigree
Bivol
Bivol 14/14 title fights vs Smith 6/8 title fights
KO Power
Smith
Bivol (48% KO rate) vs Smith (58% KO rate)
Win Rate & Record
Bivol
Bivol (96%) vs Smith (94%)
Prediction generated by a logistic regression model trained on 12,530+ historical fights. Boxing is unpredictable: any fighter can win on any given night.
Radar Comparison
Each axis runs from 0 at the centre to 100% at the rim. Hover a name to isolate a fighter, or a point for its value.
P4P Component Scores
| Component | Bivol | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Win/Loss | 0.965 | 0.931 |
| Opposition | 0.943 | 0.766 |
| Titles | 0.950 | 0.700 |
| Activity | 0.940 | 0.770 |
| Composite | 0.953 | 0.825 |
Common Opponents
| Opponent | Bivol | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Artur Beterbiev | Win MD | Loss TKO |
| Canelo Alvarez | Win UD | Loss UD |
| Lenin Castillo | Win UD | Win KO |