COMPARE FIGHTERS
Christian Mbilli
29-1-1
Super Middleweight
vs
Keny Alvarez
63-3-2
Super Middleweight
FIGHT PREDICTION
Moderate Confidence
PREDICTED WINNER
Keny Alvarez
PREDICTED METHOD
📋 Decision
Mbilli
Alvarez
📊 Analysis
Our model predicts Keny Alvarez to defeat Christian Mbilli with a 58% probability (moderate confidence). This fight is expected to go to the scorecards. Key advantages: title fight pedigree, p4p rating, and experience & durability.
🔑 Key Factors
Title Fight Pedigree
Alvarez
Mbilli 0/2 title fights vs Alvarez 21/26 title fights
P4P Rating
Alvarez
Mbilli Rank #108 (0.728) vs Alvarez Rank #9 (0.906)
Experience & Durability
Alvarez
Mbilli 31 fights vs Alvarez 68 fights
Physical Attributes
Mbilli
Alvarez +1cm height, Mbilli +4cm reach, Mbilli age advantage (30)
Activity & Recency
Alvarez
Mbilli (2 fights in 2 yrs) vs Alvarez (3 fights in 2 yrs)
Win Rate & Record
Mbilli
Mbilli (95%) vs Alvarez (94%)
Prediction generated by a logistic regression model trained on 12,530+ historical fights. Boxing is unpredictable: any fighter can win on any given night.
Radar Comparison
P4P Component Scores
| Component | Mbilli | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win/Loss | 0.949 | 0.890 |
| Opposition | 0.638 | 0.911 |
| Titles | 0.140 | 0.900 |
| Activity | 0.940 | 1.000 |
| Composite | 0.728 | 0.906 |
Head-to-Head Result
Keny Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli: NoContest